A Sad Story Of Rupee

 

Historical Data

Year	Exchange Rate (Rupees / US$)
1952	5
1970	7.576
1975	8.409
1980	7.887
1985	12.369
1990	17.504
1995	32.427
2000	45
2006	48.336
2007 (Oct)	38.48
2008 (June)	42.51
2008 (Oct)	48.88
2009 (Oct)	46.37
2010 (Jan 22)	46.21
2011 (April)	44.17
2011 (Sept 21)	48.24
2011 (Nov 17)	50.97
2011 (Nov 24)	52.11
2011 (Dec 15)	53.65
2011 (Dec 14)	53.7147
2012 (May,18)	54.93 (All Time High)

Sachin & SENSEX

Some Days before i find a mail in my mail box,Its related to Sachin Tendulkar and SENSEX. It was a worth while reading mail.In this mail there are positive Co-Relation between A world Famous Indian Cricketer Sachin Tendulker and also a reputed Financial institution Index SENSEX (Bombay Stock Exchange).This is a case study for Financial Market Research Analyst.

When Sachin Makes a century or making a good score,the BSE Index Sensex goes Up,thats means market has gone up. Some of The statistics are taken from 2000 to 2009.
U. W. M. B. C. A. Welegedara (yes, those initials are right!) is the new hero of Sri Lankan cricket. As a late replacement in just his second Test match, yesterday he cleaned bowled the great Indian batsman Sachin Tendulkar - for just four runs.

And that's not good news for the Indian stock market.

Sachin Tendulkar is, arguably, the best batsman ever. He's certainly scored more runs in international cricket than anyone else – nearly 30,000 of them. When he hammers a century on home soil, the whole country cheers right up. Including the Bombay Stock Exchange's Sensitive Index (Sensex).


This Bloomberg chart below indicates that on 75% of trading days after a domestic Tendulkar ton – the blue bars show the daily percentage move - the Sensex rose. Indeed, the index ticked up following each of the last seven centuries by the 'Little Master'. So any more swing bowling successes from Mr Welegedara won't go down too well with the local stockbrokers.

But there's a much bigger picture here. The Sensex has more than doubled from its early-March lows. And despite last year's massive sell-off, the index has risen almost three times in five years to within 18% of the all-time high in January 2008.

Now the Sensex is looking ripe for a pullback. Firstly, the Indian Reserve Bank has started tightening monetary policy and "higher policy interest rates are only a matter of time", says Kevin Grice at Capital Economics. Interest rate hikes are generally bad for share prices as they increase the returns investors can get elsewhere.

Second, as Grice also points out, "valuations are now expensive, and the risk that the near-term outlook surprises on the downside appears far greater than the possibility that India's economy can continue to beat expectations". In other words, the market is pricing in plenty of good news that may well not materialise.

Before writing this Article i had make an post on Facebook and Twitter.I got some vry interesting answer,Some of the answer are :-
Both belongs from Mumbai ETC

INVESTMENT DECISION

Past year(2008) is very bad year for the Financial market worldover.Indian Stock market (SENSEX) had touched 21000 marked than sleeps to 7000 marks.We had seen all the fluctuation in the indian financial merket as well as sharp downfall in the financial markets.Indias inflation rate is touched 13 year higest 11.05%(June 7,2008).But India is not the only nation grappling with rising inflation. The entire world is facing the problem.

Some of the countries with highest inflation rates are:-

• The inflation in Zimbabwe for the month of March 2008 rose to 355,000%! Yes, 355,000 per cent! It more than doubled from the February figure of 165,000%.Due to the sudden rise in money supply that flooded the economy to finance the 2008 elections.The Zimbabwean central bank has introduced $500 million bearer cheques (or currency notes) for the public, and $5 billion, $25 billion, $50 billion agro-cheques for farmers. Just last fortnight the nation had introduced $250 million bearer cheques.

  Iraq 53.2% due to Rising oil prices, political instability, terrorism and the other post-conflict dynamics have led to inflation in the nation rise to unmanageable proportions.

  Guinea 30.9%,San Tome and Principe,(an African nation) 23.1%,Yemen 20.8%(More than 87% of Yemenis live for less than $2 a day. About 52% of children less than 5 years old suffer from malnutrition) etc.

Now investor are looking for riskless and fixed return income plan or product.Investor are switching over Equity to Debt instrument. Every day,every time we begin  with dampened enthusiasm and dented optimism. Our happiness is diluted and our peace is threatened by the financial illness that has infected our families, organisations and nations. Everyone is desperate to find a remedy that will cure their financial illness and help them recover their financial health. They expect the financial experts toprovide them with remedies, forgetting the fact that it is these experts who created this financial mess. 

Every day, you adopt a couple of oldand new maxims as  beacons to guide your future. This self-prescribed therapy has ensured that with each passing year, I grow wiser and not older. This year, I invite you to tap into the financial wisdom of our elders along with me, and become financially wiser.In this financial crisis period we should be verycautious about taking any financial decision to invesrt their hard and earned money.

I am not a financial analyst or any type of financial advisor or business analyst.These days the people are financial educated,they can make decision very wisely.I am just highliting some point it will help you for financial wiser decision before investment. 

• Hard work: All hard work brings profit; but mere talk leads only to poverty.
• Laziness: A sleeping lobster is carried away by the water current.
• Earnings: Never depend on a single source of income.
• Spending: If you buy things you don't need, you'll soon sell things you need.
• Savings: Don't save what is left after spending; Spend what is left after saving.
• Borrowings: The borrower becomes the lender's slave.
• Accounting: It's no use carrying an umbrella, if your shoes are leaking.
• Auditing: Beware of little expenses; a small leak can sink a large ship.
• Risk-taking: Never test the depth of the river with both feet.
• Investment: Don't put all your eggs in one basket.

I'm certain that those who have already been practicing these principles remain financially healthy. I'm equally confident that those who resolve to start practicing these principles will quickly regain their financial health. 

Let us become wiser and lead a happy, healthy, prosperous and peaceful life.

These are my personal views.