Sachin & SENSEX

Some Days before i find a mail in my mail box,Its related to Sachin Tendulkar and SENSEX. It was a worth while reading mail.In this mail there are positive Co-Relation between A world Famous Indian Cricketer Sachin Tendulker and also a reputed Financial institution Index SENSEX (Bombay Stock Exchange).This is a case study for Financial Market Research Analyst.

When Sachin Makes a century or making a good score,the BSE Index Sensex goes Up,thats means market has gone up. Some of The statistics are taken from 2000 to 2009.
U. W. M. B. C. A. Welegedara (yes, those initials are right!) is the new hero of Sri Lankan cricket. As a late replacement in just his second Test match, yesterday he cleaned bowled the great Indian batsman Sachin Tendulkar - for just four runs.

And that's not good news for the Indian stock market.

Sachin Tendulkar is, arguably, the best batsman ever. He's certainly scored more runs in international cricket than anyone else – nearly 30,000 of them. When he hammers a century on home soil, the whole country cheers right up. Including the Bombay Stock Exchange's Sensitive Index (Sensex).


This Bloomberg chart below indicates that on 75% of trading days after a domestic Tendulkar ton – the blue bars show the daily percentage move - the Sensex rose. Indeed, the index ticked up following each of the last seven centuries by the 'Little Master'. So any more swing bowling successes from Mr Welegedara won't go down too well with the local stockbrokers.

But there's a much bigger picture here. The Sensex has more than doubled from its early-March lows. And despite last year's massive sell-off, the index has risen almost three times in five years to within 18% of the all-time high in January 2008.

Now the Sensex is looking ripe for a pullback. Firstly, the Indian Reserve Bank has started tightening monetary policy and "higher policy interest rates are only a matter of time", says Kevin Grice at Capital Economics. Interest rate hikes are generally bad for share prices as they increase the returns investors can get elsewhere.

Second, as Grice also points out, "valuations are now expensive, and the risk that the near-term outlook surprises on the downside appears far greater than the possibility that India's economy can continue to beat expectations". In other words, the market is pricing in plenty of good news that may well not materialise.

Before writing this Article i had make an post on Facebook and Twitter.I got some vry interesting answer,Some of the answer are :-
Both belongs from Mumbai ETC

Stock Market Crash 1929

World had seen some worst stock market crashes. The trend of crashes shows that the crashes do follow certain pattern. When the bulls dominate the market following positive feed backs for a prolonged period, stock prices does not reflect the right pricing, motivated people pushing the market up for their short term gains like the Harshad mehta scam of India. When the market goes beyond a limit the markets start falling to maintain a standard. When the market starts falling bears start dominating and the price keeps on falling. Bears keeps on selling and short selling to send the market down and make money. The continuing trend is called stock market crash.
The most famous of the stock market crashes is 1929 stock market crash. This particular crash was the result of continuing domination of the market by bulls sky rocketing the index over the roof because of positive factors like invention of radio, automobiles, telephone etc. This positive feeling send the market over the roof. From 63.9 at August 24, 1921 the Dow Jones industrial average sky rocketed to 381.3 at September3,1929. By the summer the industry and market started falling. The anxiety of falling market made people selling and thus happened the greatest crash in the history of stock market.

10 biggest fall of Indian stock market

In India there are mainly 2 stock exchange where the stocks are traded namely BSE(Bombay Stock Exchange)and NSE(National Stock Exchange)Apart from these 2 exchange there are 23 other exchange,they are on regional levels.In NSE there are around 5000 stocks are traded and in BSE 3000 stocks are traded.But the NIFTY index is 50 and SENSEX is 30 stocks are representing.in these index the top performing companies and sector stocks are present.
Indian investors had seen the Up's and Down's of the market.
10 biggest falls in the Indian stock market history:
Jan 21, 2008: The Sensex saw its highest ever loss of 1,408 points at the end of the session on Monday. The Sensex recovered to close at 17,605.40 after it tumbled to the day's low of 16,963.96, on high volatility as investors panicked following weak global cues amid fears of the US recession.
Jan 22, 2008: The Sensex saw its biggest intra-day fall on Tuesday when it hit a low of 15,332, down 2,273 points. However, it recovered losses and closed at a loss of 875 points at 16,730. The Nifty closed at 4,899 at a loss of 310 points. Trading was suspended for one hour at the Bombay Stock Exchange after the benchmark Sensex crashed to a low of 15,576.30 within minutes of opening, crossing the circuit limit of 10 per cent.
May 18, 2006: The Sensex registered a fall of 826 points (6.76 per cent) to close at 11,391, following heavy selling by FIIs, retail investors and a weakness in global markets. The Nifty crashed by 496.50 points (8.70%) points to close at 5,208.80 points.
December 17, 2007: A heavy bout of selling in the late noon deals saw the index plunge to a low of 19,177 - down 856 points from the day's open. The Sensex finally ended with a huge loss of 769 points (3.8%) at 19,261. The NSE Nifty ended at 5,777, down 271 points.
October 18, 2007: Profit-taking in noon trades saw the index pare gains and slip into negative zone. The intensity of selling increased towards the closing bell, and the index tumbled all the way to a low of 17,771 - down 1,428 points from the day's high. The Sensex finally ended with a hefty loss of 717 points (3.8%) at 17,998. The Nifty lost 208 points to close at 5,351.
January 18, 2008: Unabated selling in the last one hour of trade saw the index tumble to a low of 18,930 - down 786 points from the day's high. The Sensex finally ended with a hefty loss of 687 points (3.5%) at 19,014. The index thus shed 8.7% (1,813 points) during the week. The NSE Nifty plunged 3.5% (208 points) to 5,705.
November 21, 2007: Mirroring weakness in other Asian markets, the Sensex saw relentless selling. The index tumbled to a low of 18,515 - down 766 points from the previous close. The Sensex finally ended with a loss of 678 points at 18,603. The Nifty lost 220 points to close at 5,561.
August 16, 2007: The Sensex, after languishing over 500 points lower for most of the trading sesion, slipped again towards the close to a low of 14,345. The index finally ended with a hefty loss of 643 points at 14,358.
April 02, 2007: The Sensex opened with a huge negative gap of 260 points at 12,812 following the Reserve Bank of India decision to hike the cash reserve ratio and repo rate. Unabated selling, mainly in auto and banking stocks, saw the index drift to lower levels as the day progressed. The index tumbled to a low of 12,426 before finally settling with a hefty loss of 617 points (4.7%) at 12,455.
August 01, 2007: The Sensex opened with a negative gap of 207 points at 15,344 amid weak trends in the global market and slipped deeper into the red. Unabated selling across-the-board saw the index tumble to a low of 14,911. The Sensex finally ended with a hefty loss of 615 points at 14,936. The NSE Nifty ended at 4,346, down 183 points. This is the third biggest loss in absolute terms for the index.

INVESTMENT DECISION

Past year(2008) is very bad year for the Financial market worldover.Indian Stock market (SENSEX) had touched 21000 marked than sleeps to 7000 marks.We had seen all the fluctuation in the indian financial merket as well as sharp downfall in the financial markets.Indias inflation rate is touched 13 year higest 11.05%(June 7,2008).But India is not the only nation grappling with rising inflation. The entire world is facing the problem.

Some of the countries with highest inflation rates are:-

• The inflation in Zimbabwe for the month of March 2008 rose to 355,000%! Yes, 355,000 per cent! It more than doubled from the February figure of 165,000%.Due to the sudden rise in money supply that flooded the economy to finance the 2008 elections.The Zimbabwean central bank has introduced $500 million bearer cheques (or currency notes) for the public, and $5 billion, $25 billion, $50 billion agro-cheques for farmers. Just last fortnight the nation had introduced $250 million bearer cheques.

  Iraq 53.2% due to Rising oil prices, political instability, terrorism and the other post-conflict dynamics have led to inflation in the nation rise to unmanageable proportions.

  Guinea 30.9%,San Tome and Principe,(an African nation) 23.1%,Yemen 20.8%(More than 87% of Yemenis live for less than $2 a day. About 52% of children less than 5 years old suffer from malnutrition) etc.

Now investor are looking for riskless and fixed return income plan or product.Investor are switching over Equity to Debt instrument. Every day,every time we begin  with dampened enthusiasm and dented optimism. Our happiness is diluted and our peace is threatened by the financial illness that has infected our families, organisations and nations. Everyone is desperate to find a remedy that will cure their financial illness and help them recover their financial health. They expect the financial experts toprovide them with remedies, forgetting the fact that it is these experts who created this financial mess. 

Every day, you adopt a couple of oldand new maxims as  beacons to guide your future. This self-prescribed therapy has ensured that with each passing year, I grow wiser and not older. This year, I invite you to tap into the financial wisdom of our elders along with me, and become financially wiser.In this financial crisis period we should be verycautious about taking any financial decision to invesrt their hard and earned money.

I am not a financial analyst or any type of financial advisor or business analyst.These days the people are financial educated,they can make decision very wisely.I am just highliting some point it will help you for financial wiser decision before investment. 

• Hard work: All hard work brings profit; but mere talk leads only to poverty.
• Laziness: A sleeping lobster is carried away by the water current.
• Earnings: Never depend on a single source of income.
• Spending: If you buy things you don't need, you'll soon sell things you need.
• Savings: Don't save what is left after spending; Spend what is left after saving.
• Borrowings: The borrower becomes the lender's slave.
• Accounting: It's no use carrying an umbrella, if your shoes are leaking.
• Auditing: Beware of little expenses; a small leak can sink a large ship.
• Risk-taking: Never test the depth of the river with both feet.
• Investment: Don't put all your eggs in one basket.

I'm certain that those who have already been practicing these principles remain financially healthy. I'm equally confident that those who resolve to start practicing these principles will quickly regain their financial health. 

Let us become wiser and lead a happy, healthy, prosperous and peaceful life.

These are my personal views.