Showing posts with label stock market. Show all posts
Showing posts with label stock market. Show all posts

Friday, May 18, 2012

A Sad Story Of Rupee

 
Historical Data

Year Exchange Rate (Rupees / US$)
1952 5
1970 7.576
1975 8.409
1980 7.887
1985 12.369
1990 17.504
1995 32.427
2000 45
2006 48.336
2007 (Oct) 38.48
2008 (June) 42.51
2008 (Oct) 48.88
2009 (Oct) 46.37
2010 (Jan 22) 46.21
2011 (April) 44.17
2011 (Sept 21) 48.24
2011 (Nov 17) 50.97
2011 (Nov 24) 52.11
2011 (Dec 15) 53.65
2011 (Dec 14) 53.7147
2012 (May,18) 54.93 (All Time High)      

Sunday, December 6, 2009

Sachin & SENSEX

Some Days before i find a mail in my mail box,Its related to Sachin Tendulkar and SENSEX. It was a worth while reading mail.In this mail there are positive Co-Relation between A world Famous Indian Cricketer Sachin Tendulker and also a reputed Financial institution Index SENSEX (Bombay Stock Exchange).This is a case study for Financial Market Research Analyst.

When Sachin Makes a century or making a good score,the BSE Index Sensex goes Up,thats means market has gone up. Some of The statistics are taken from 2000 to 2009.
U. W. M. B. C. A. Welegedara (yes, those initials are right!) is the new hero of Sri Lankan cricket. As a late replacement in just his second Test match, yesterday he cleaned bowled the great Indian batsman Sachin Tendulkar - for just four runs.

And that's not good news for the Indian stock market.

Sachin Tendulkar is, arguably, the best batsman ever. He's certainly scored more runs in international cricket than anyone else – nearly 30,000 of them. When he hammers a century on home soil, the whole country cheers right up. Including the Bombay Stock Exchange's Sensitive Index (Sensex).


This Bloomberg chart below indicates that on 75% of trading days after a domestic Tendulkar ton – the blue bars show the daily percentage move - the Sensex rose. Indeed, the index ticked up following each of the last seven centuries by the 'Little Master'. So any more swing bowling successes from Mr Welegedara won't go down too well with the local stockbrokers.

But there's a much bigger picture here. The Sensex has more than doubled from its early-March lows. And despite last year's massive sell-off, the index has risen almost three times in five years to within 18% of the all-time high in January 2008.

Now the Sensex is looking ripe for a pullback. Firstly, the Indian Reserve Bank has started tightening monetary policy and "higher policy interest rates are only a matter of time", says Kevin Grice at Capital Economics. Interest rate hikes are generally bad for share prices as they increase the returns investors can get elsewhere.

Second, as Grice also points out, "valuations are now expensive, and the risk that the near-term outlook surprises on the downside appears far greater than the possibility that India's economy can continue to beat expectations". In other words, the market is pricing in plenty of good news that may well not materialise.

Before writing this Article i had make an post on Facebook and Twitter.I got some vry interesting answer,Some of the answer are :-
Both belongs from Mumbai ETC



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Sunday, May 24, 2009

Stock Market Crash 1929


World had seen some worst stock market crashes. The trend of crashes shows that the crashes do follow certain pattern. When the bulls dominate the market following positive feed backs for a prolonged period, stock prices does not reflect the right pricing, motivated people pushing the market up for their short term gains like the Harshad mehta scam of India. When the market goes beyond a limit the markets start falling to maintain a standard. When the market starts falling bears start dominating and the price keeps on falling. Bears keeps on selling and short selling to send the market down and make money. The continuing trend is called stock market crash.
The most famous of the stock market crashes is 1929 stock market crash. This particular crash was the result of continuing domination of the market by bulls sky rocketing the index over the roof because of positive factors like invention of radio, automobiles, telephone etc. This positive feeling send the market over the roof. From 63.9 at August 24, 1921 the Dow Jones industrial average sky rocketed to 381.3 at September3,1929. By the summer the industry and market started falling. The anxiety of falling market made people selling and thus happened the greatest crash in the history of stock market.


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Tuesday, January 27, 2009

INVESTMENT DECISION

Past year(2008) is very bad year for the Financial market worldover.Indian Stock market (SENSEX) had touched 21000 marked than sleeps to 7000 marks.We had seen all the fluctuation in the indian financial merket as well as sharp downfall in the financial markets.Indias inflation rate is touched 13 year higest 11.05%(June 7,2008).But India is not the only nation grappling with rising inflation. The entire world is facing the problem.

Some of the countries with highest inflation rates are:-

  • The inflation in Zimbabwe for the month of March 2008 rose to 355,000%! Yes, 355,000 per cent! It more than doubled from the February figure of 165,000%.Due to the sudden rise in money supply that flooded the economy to finance the 2008 elections.The Zimbabwean central bank has introduced $500 million bearer cheques (or currency notes) for the public, and $5 billion, $25 billion, $50 billion agro-cheques for farmers. Just last fortnight the nation had introduced $250 million bearer cheques.

    Iraq 53.2% due to Rising oil prices, political instability, terrorism and the other post-conflict dynamics have led to inflation in the nation rise to unmanageable proportions.

    Guinea 30.9%,San Tome and Principe,(an African nation) 23.1%,Yemen 20.8%(More than 87% of Yemenis live for less than $2 a day. About 52% of children less than 5 years old suffer from malnutrition) etc.

Now investor are looking for riskless and fixed return income plan or product.Investor are switching over Equity to Debt instrument. Every day,every time we begin  with dampened enthusiasm and dented optimism. Our happiness is diluted and our peace is threatened by the financial illness that has infected our families, organisations and nations. Everyone is desperate to find a remedy that will cure their financial illness and help them recover their financial health. They expect the financial experts toprovide them with remedies, forgetting the fact that it is these experts who created this financial mess. 

Every day, you adopt a couple of oldand new maxims as  beacons to guide your future. This self-prescribed therapy has ensured that with each passing year, I grow wiser and not older. This year, I invite you to tap into the financial wisdom of our elders along with me, and become financially wiser.In this financial crisis period we should be verycautious about taking any financial decision to invesrt their hard and earned money.

I am not a financial analyst or any type of financial advisor or business analyst.These days the people are financial educated,they can make decision very wisely.I am just highliting some point it will help you for financial wiser decision before investment. 

  • Hard work: All hard work brings profit; but mere talk leads only to poverty.
  • Laziness: A sleeping lobster is carried away by the water current.
  • Earnings: Never depend on a single source of income.
  • Spending: If you buy things you don't need, you'll soon sell things you need.
  • Savings: Don't save what is left after spending; Spend what is left after saving.
  • Borrowings: The borrower becomes the lender's slave.
  • Accounting: It's no use carrying an umbrella, if your shoes are leaking.
  • Auditing: Beware of little expenses; a small leak can sink a large ship.
  • Risk-taking: Never test the depth of the river with both feet.
  • Investment: Don't put all your eggs in one basket.

I'm certain that those who have already been practicing these principles remain financially healthy. I'm equally confident that those who resolve to start practicing these principles will quickly regain their financial health. 
Let us become wiser and lead a happy, healthy, prosperous and peaceful life.

These are my personal views.




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Tuesday, January 6, 2009

Few myths about investing

What do you do when your entire stock market investment suddenly halves in value - as it has for many people since January last year? Curse fate? Rail against market manipulators? Abuse the government for failing to protect your wealth?

You can do all that, but none of it will bring your money back. The best thing you can do is to look back and learn from it all. The world's best investors have done just that and made tons of money in the process. They then proceeded to write books on their successes, and made even more moolah.

Good for them, but not for you. Peter Lynch's bestseller, One-Up On Wall Street, earned him good money, but don't assume you will achieve the same success by following his methods. Success can never be copied.

The best way to start is by exploding a few myths and questioning the half-truths that pass for timeless wisdom. Let's start by examining them one by one.

Myth 1: Stock market investments will always outperform bonds and fixed-return avenues in the long run.

It's been true so far only if you stretch the definition of long run. Is five years long run enough, or 10 or 15? If you had invested in stocks in 1992, you wouldn't have beaten a bank fixed deposit in terms of returns for 10-12 years. In other words, the best definition of long run is almost forever. If you invest at market peaks, and the times are bad — as they seem now — you may have to wait 10-15 years to beat ordinary bank deposits. You may be lucky, and the markets may revive immediately, but if you aren't, stocks will outperform fixed avenues only over very long stretches. So, be prepared to wait.

Myth 2: Look at stock fundamentals, and you can never go wrong.

Again, this is partly untrue. The value of your stock — any stock — can rise only if others keep buying it. Even an Infosys can rise only if lots of people think its price will rise. This could be influenced by its profitability and other "fundamental" factors, but what gives you returns is liquidity — the willingness of other people to keep buying your stock in large numbers.

Myth 3: The amount you must invest in equity is 100 minus your age.

This is not bad advice, but the real point is your ability to shoulder risk. The assumption behind this formula is that when you are 20, you don't have dependents, and thus can afford to invest 80% of your spare cash in equity. I would restate this proposition by saying that the amount you invest in equity should depend on how much you are willing to lose forever. Equity should get as much money as you are willing to write off from your wealth. At 60, with my children married and a decent pension, I might want to risk 80% of my wealth in equity. It's fine, as long as I am prepared to lose it all.

Myth 4: Time in the market is more important that timing the market.

This is the same as myth 1, which says that the longer you stay invested, the more chances of you making money. Again, only partly true. Good investors know that timing is all. While no one can call market peaks or troughs correctly all the time, we all can figure out whether the market is in a bearish phase or bullish. You must time the market by investing more in bearish phases and less at other times.

Myth 5: Government bonds and debt investments are risk-free.

This is completely wrong. All listed instruments carry risks — including government bonds. At the very least, they carry interest-rate risk. When interest rates rise, the value of your bond falls — and you lose money. The only way to not lose money is to hold bonds to maturity, which is not a bad option for pensioners and others who want the income.

Myth 6: Buy land, for they ain't making any more of it no more.

This has been true for so long that people actually believe in it. However, the proposition depends on two premises — a growing population and economy, and fixed supplies of land. In stable economies with stable populations, real estate gives you returns similar to other avenues. In populous countries like India, realty prices do keep rising, but largely in urban centres and largely because the market structure is weak.




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